Recipients appreciate being reached out to more than the person reaching out predicts. The gap gets wider the more surprising the contact is — the longer the silence, the more the sender underestimates.
How it was done
A series of experiments comparing what people who reach out expect the recipient to feel against what recipients actually report feeling.
What it means
The mis-prediction runs in a consistent direction, which is what makes it useful. It is not that people are bad at guessing; it is that they are wrong the same way every time.
It sits inside a cluster pointing the same way. Expressers of gratitude underestimate how good it lands. People underestimate how much a conversation partner liked them. People over-predict how awkward a deeper conversation will be.
The practical version: the reluctance you feel before sending a message after a long gap is not evidence about how it will be received. It is a known and measured bias.
